Ask Question, Ask an Expert


Ask Econometrics Expert

1. In the x11 multiplicative decomposition method (Y = T x C x S x ε) an MA 3 smoother is applied to the estimated cycle-error (Cε component) series to reveal the cycle component. Why the choice of MA 3 here compared to other smoothers or window sizes? 
2. A simple exponential forecast model is being applied to forecast sales figures (in 1000s of computers) for Dell computers. The last period’s sales figure was 125, while it was forecasted to be 134.3. The weighting parameter is α = 0.25.

(i) What is the point forecast of sales in the next time period?
(ii) What is the 95% forecast interval for the next period’s sales figure? (use z = 1.96)

Show all working.

The simple exponential forecasting formula is:

1118_exponential forecasting formula.jpg

3. List two issues that can help choose between quantitative and qualitative forecasting methods. Give one brief reason why each can help in this choice.

4. Which forecasting method forms a forecast by weighting the most recent data (in time) more highly than less recent data?

5. Regarding quantitative forecasting, what are the main differences between an intuitive method and a formal statistical model?

6. Describe/List the main differences between qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods.

7. Which measure of forecast accuracy should be used in the following situations?

(i) A small number of large forecast errors needs to be guarded against.
(ii) Errors need to be measured in percentage terms.
(iii) Whether a model’s forecasts are biased is more important than the typical size of errors.

8. Consider the following time series plot showing annual labour force data in Australia.

817_annual labor force.jpg

(i) Describe the main features or components apparent in the data
(ii) List three quantitative forecast models that might be tried for this data, with brief motivation for each choice.

9. The time series model with autoregressive order 1 errors can be written as:

76_time series model.jpg

(i) Derive the formula for the 2 step-ahead point forecast E(yt+2| y1,t).

(ii) Now derive the formula for the 100(1-α)%  forecast interval for  yt+2| y1,t.

(iii) What component does the formula for ε attempt to capture? describe exactly how it tries to achieve this when forecasting (a picture might help here).

10. Find the weights, showing all working, for the following centred smoothers:

(i) 2 x 6 MA

(ii) 3 x 3 MA

(iii) 3 x 7 MA

(iv) Indicate how many missing observations there will be at the start and end of each  smoothed series in (i)-(iii).

(v) Identify each smoother in (i)-(iii) as a WMA-k. What is k?

(vi) Is each smoother in (i)-(iii) symmetric? Justify your answer

(vii) Devise a symmetric smoother that is an WMA 5 so that the weight on time t is 1.5 times the weight at times t-1 and t+1; and double the weight at times t-2, t+2

11. The Holt-Winters additive model is given by the equations:

664_holt winters formula.jpg

Showing all working, complete the following:

(i) Put this model in error correction form.

(ii) Derive the 1, 2 and 3 step-ahead forecasts from this model. describe briefly why this model is called the ‘local-linear’ forecasting model.

(iii) Discuss exactly how the model in (ii) is different to simply applying a linear trend (with normal errors) as follows:
(iv) The h-step ahead forecast and forecast variances from the model in (ii) are:

1713_h-step ahead forecast.jpg

What happens to the forecasts and forecast intervals as h gets larger? What happens as h tends to infinity? describe how and why this behaviour can be reasonable in a statistical model.

Econometrics, Economics

  • Category:- Econometrics
  • Reference No.:- M921
  • Price:- $110

Guranteed 48 Hours Delivery, In Price:- $110

Have any Question? 

Related Questions in Econometrics

1 in what ways can financing from international bodies such

1. In what ways can financing from international bodies such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank contribute to reducing poverty in low-income economies? 2. Looking at the history of either the EU, Mercosur o ...

Suppose home is a small open economy and received a

Suppose Home is a small open economy and received a significant amount of capital. 1) Suppose that Home produces both computers and shoes using labor and capital. Both factors are perfect mobile across industries. The pr ...

A firm builds shipping crates out of wood how does the cost

A firm builds shipping crates out of wood. How does the cost of producing a 1-cubic-foot crate (each side is 1-foot square) compare to the cost of building an 8-cubic-foot crate if wood costs $1 a square foot and the fir ...

Consider the ultimatum game a two-player game often played

Consider the Ultimatum Game, a two-player game often played in experimental economics labs. In the Ultimatum Game, one player is given an amount of money and then instructed to give some arbitrary portion of it to an ano ...

Elaine makes delicious cupcakes that she mails to customers

Elaine makes delicious cupcakes that she mails to customers across the country. Her cupcakes are so delicious that she has a great degree of pricing power. Elaine's customers have identical demands for cupcakes. A repres ...

In 2005 president bushs tax reform commission proposed and

In 2005, President Bush's tax reform commission proposed and Congress enacted a decrease in taxes. One of the cuts was in the income tax rate for higher-income wage earners. Republicans claimed that raising the rewards f ...

Mckee corporation has annual fixed costs of 12 million its

McKee Corporation has annual fixed costs of $12 million. Its variable cost ratio is .60. a. Determine the company's break-even dollar sales volume. b. Determine the dollar sales volume required to earn a target profit of ...

The size of the piece of chocolate in fig 18 is increased n

The size of the piece of chocolate in Fig. 1.8 is increased n times and its weight is proportional to the mass. If the density of the model is half that of the original piece, determine the weight of the model

1 what is the balanced-budget multiplier explain why the

1. What is the balanced-budget multiplier? Explain why the balanced-budget multiplier is equal to 1. 2. Evaluate the following statement: For an economy to be in equilibrium, planned investment spending plus government p ...

1 how might government best tacklea structural unemployment

1. How might government best tackle (a) structural unemployment and (b) frictional unemployment? 2. According to a labour force survey the rate of unemployment is 8 per cent. However, according to the claimant count the ...

  • 4,153,160 Questions Asked
  • 13,132 Experts
  • 2,558,936 Questions Answered

Ask Experts for help!!

Looking for Assignment Help?

Start excelling in your Courses, Get help with Assignment

Write us your full requirement for evaluation and you will receive response within 20 minutes turnaround time.

Ask Now Help with Problems, Get a Best Answer

WalMart Identification of theory and critical discussion

Drawing on the prescribed text and/or relevant academic literature, produce a paper which discusses the nature of group

Section onea in an atwood machine suppose two objects of

SECTION ONE (a) In an Atwood Machine, suppose two objects of unequal mass are hung vertically over a frictionless

Part 1you work in hr for a company that operates a factory

Part 1: You work in HR for a company that operates a factory manufacturing fiberglass. There are several hundred empl

Details on advanced accounting paperthis paper is intended

DETAILS ON ADVANCED ACCOUNTING PAPER This paper is intended for students to apply the theoretical knowledge around ac

Create a provider database and related reports and queries

Create a provider database and related reports and queries to capture contact information for potential PC component pro