Ask Question, Ask an Expert

+1-415-315-9853

info@mywordsolution.com

Ask Econometrics Expert

1. In the x11 multiplicative decomposition method (Y = T x C x S x ε) an MA 3 smoother is applied to the estimated cycle-error (Cε component) series to reveal the cycle component. Why the choice of MA 3 here compared to other smoothers or window sizes? 
  
2. A simple exponential forecast model is being applied to forecast sales figures (in 1000s of computers) for Dell computers. The last period’s sales figure was 125, while it was forecasted to be 134.3. The weighting parameter is α = 0.25.

(i) What is the point forecast of sales in the next time period?
(ii) What is the 95% forecast interval for the next period’s sales figure? (use z = 1.96)

Show all working.

The simple exponential forecasting formula is:

1118_exponential forecasting formula.jpg

3. List two issues that can help choose between quantitative and qualitative forecasting methods. Give one brief reason why each can help in this choice.

4. Which forecasting method forms a forecast by weighting the most recent data (in time) more highly than less recent data?

5. Regarding quantitative forecasting, what are the main differences between an intuitive method and a formal statistical model?

6. Describe/List the main differences between qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods.

7. Which measure of forecast accuracy should be used in the following situations?

(i) A small number of large forecast errors needs to be guarded against.
(ii) Errors need to be measured in percentage terms.
(iii) Whether a model’s forecasts are biased is more important than the typical size of errors.

8. Consider the following time series plot showing annual labour force data in Australia.

817_annual labor force.jpg

(i) Describe the main features or components apparent in the data
(ii) List three quantitative forecast models that might be tried for this data, with brief motivation for each choice.

9. The time series model with autoregressive order 1 errors can be written as:

76_time series model.jpg

(i) Derive the formula for the 2 step-ahead point forecast E(yt+2| y1,t).

(ii) Now derive the formula for the 100(1-α)%  forecast interval for  yt+2| y1,t.

(iii) What component does the formula for ε attempt to capture? describe exactly how it tries to achieve this when forecasting (a picture might help here).

10. Find the weights, showing all working, for the following centred smoothers:

(i) 2 x 6 MA

(ii) 3 x 3 MA

(iii) 3 x 7 MA

(iv) Indicate how many missing observations there will be at the start and end of each  smoothed series in (i)-(iii).

(v) Identify each smoother in (i)-(iii) as a WMA-k. What is k?

(vi) Is each smoother in (i)-(iii) symmetric? Justify your answer

(vii) Devise a symmetric smoother that is an WMA 5 so that the weight on time t is 1.5 times the weight at times t-1 and t+1; and double the weight at times t-2, t+2

11. The Holt-Winters additive model is given by the equations:

664_holt winters formula.jpg

Showing all working, complete the following:

(i) Put this model in error correction form.

(ii) Derive the 1, 2 and 3 step-ahead forecasts from this model. describe briefly why this model is called the ‘local-linear’ forecasting model.

(iii) Discuss exactly how the model in (ii) is different to simply applying a linear trend (with normal errors) as follows:
             
(iv) The h-step ahead forecast and forecast variances from the model in (ii) are:

1713_h-step ahead forecast.jpg

What happens to the forecasts and forecast intervals as h gets larger? What happens as h tends to infinity? describe how and why this behaviour can be reasonable in a statistical model.

Econometrics, Economics

  • Category:- Econometrics
  • Reference No.:- M921
  • Price:- $110

Guranteed 48 Hours Delivery, In Price:- $110

Have any Question? 


Related Questions in Econometrics

Harry is dating sally because he is devastated at the

Harry is dating Sally. Because he is devastated at the thought of being dumped, he spends considerable resources making himself attractive to her: expensive haircuts, ballroom dancing classes, a gym membership, and so on ...

Suppose that roy could choose how many hours to work at a

Suppose that Roy could choose how many hours to work at a wage of w and chose to work seven hours a day. The employer now offers him time-and-a-half wages (1.5w) for every hour he works beyond a minimum of eight hours pe ...

Nataraj 2007 finds that a 100 increase in the price of

Nataraj (2007) finds that a 100% increase in the price of water for heavy users in Santa Cruz, California caused the quantity of water they demanded to fall by an average of 20%. (Before the increase, heavy users initial ...

Consider the production contract curve in the graph below

Consider the production contract curve in the graph below which illustrates efficient allocations of labor and capital to the production of two goods, guns and roses. a. Use the information in the production contract cur ...

Description of assignmentreport paper basisstudents work

Description of Assignment: Report Paper basis. Students work together to research and profile a particular in Microeconomic policy, all different kinds of taxes in the United States, including carbon taxes, etc. Grading ...

A developing country is reporting a trade deficit because

A developing country is reporting a trade deficit because of large imports of capital equipment to assist in its economic development. Explain how this country might sustain this deficit over time without provoking a lar ...

Prepare the topic of your essay needs to be a global

Prepare: The topic of your essay needs to be a global societal problem from the following list: adult illiteracy, funding for General Education vs STEM in primary and secondary schools, minimum wage, oceans desertificati ...

A surface - micro machined cantilever fig 227 a does not

A surface - micro machined cantilever (Fig. 2.27 a) does not have electrical connections between the cantilever and other structures (not shown in Fig. 2.27). For the electrical connection and insulation desired, more la ...

1 what are the differences between the following three

1. What are the differences between the following three pricing strategies: block pricing, segmenting, and quantity discounts? 2. What is the difference between mixed bundling and pure bundling? 3. What are the two compo ...

1 explain the composition of aggregate demand explain under

1. Explain the composition of aggregate demand. Explain under what circumstances the aggregate demand curve might shift (a) to the right (b) to the left. 2. Distinguish between short-run and long-run aggregate supply and ...

  • 4,153,160 Questions Asked
  • 13,132 Experts
  • 2,558,936 Questions Answered

Ask Experts for help!!

Looking for Assignment Help?

Start excelling in your Courses, Get help with Assignment

Write us your full requirement for evaluation and you will receive response within 20 minutes turnaround time.

Ask Now Help with Problems, Get a Best Answer

No more pencils inc disburses checks every two weeks that

No More Pencils, Inc., disburses checks every two weeks that average $94,000 and take five days to clear. How much inter

Drawing on the prescribed text andor relevant academic

Drawing on the prescribed text and/or relevant academic literature, produce a paper which discusses the nature of group

Section onea in an atwood machine suppose two objects of

SECTION ONE (a) In an Atwood Machine, suppose two objects of unequal mass are hung vertically over a frictionless

Part 1you work in hr for a company that operates a factory

Part 1: You work in HR for a company that operates a factory manufacturing fiberglass. There are several hundred empl

Details on advanced accounting paperthis paper is intended

DETAILS ON ADVANCED ACCOUNTING PAPER This paper is intended for students to apply the theoretical knowledge around ac