Ask Question, Ask an Expert

+1-415-315-9853

info@mywordsolution.com

Ask Econometrics Expert

1. In the x11 multiplicative decomposition method (Y = T x C x S x ε) an MA 3 smoother is applied to the estimated cycle-error (Cε component) series to reveal the cycle component. Why the choice of MA 3 here compared to other smoothers or window sizes? 
  
2. A simple exponential forecast model is being applied to forecast sales figures (in 1000s of computers) for Dell computers. The last period’s sales figure was 125, while it was forecasted to be 134.3. The weighting parameter is α = 0.25.

(i) What is the point forecast of sales in the next time period?
(ii) What is the 95% forecast interval for the next period’s sales figure? (use z = 1.96)

Show all working.

The simple exponential forecasting formula is:

1118_exponential forecasting formula.jpg

3. List two issues that can help choose between quantitative and qualitative forecasting methods. Give one brief reason why each can help in this choice.

4. Which forecasting method forms a forecast by weighting the most recent data (in time) more highly than less recent data?

5. Regarding quantitative forecasting, what are the main differences between an intuitive method and a formal statistical model?

6. Describe/List the main differences between qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods.

7. Which measure of forecast accuracy should be used in the following situations?

(i) A small number of large forecast errors needs to be guarded against.
(ii) Errors need to be measured in percentage terms.
(iii) Whether a model’s forecasts are biased is more important than the typical size of errors.

8. Consider the following time series plot showing annual labour force data in Australia.

817_annual labor force.jpg

(i) Describe the main features or components apparent in the data
(ii) List three quantitative forecast models that might be tried for this data, with brief motivation for each choice.

9. The time series model with autoregressive order 1 errors can be written as:

76_time series model.jpg

(i) Derive the formula for the 2 step-ahead point forecast E(yt+2| y1,t).

(ii) Now derive the formula for the 100(1-α)%  forecast interval for  yt+2| y1,t.

(iii) What component does the formula for ε attempt to capture? describe exactly how it tries to achieve this when forecasting (a picture might help here).

10. Find the weights, showing all working, for the following centred smoothers:

(i) 2 x 6 MA

(ii) 3 x 3 MA

(iii) 3 x 7 MA

(iv) Indicate how many missing observations there will be at the start and end of each  smoothed series in (i)-(iii).

(v) Identify each smoother in (i)-(iii) as a WMA-k. What is k?

(vi) Is each smoother in (i)-(iii) symmetric? Justify your answer

(vii) Devise a symmetric smoother that is an WMA 5 so that the weight on time t is 1.5 times the weight at times t-1 and t+1; and double the weight at times t-2, t+2

11. The Holt-Winters additive model is given by the equations:

664_holt winters formula.jpg

Showing all working, complete the following:

(i) Put this model in error correction form.

(ii) Derive the 1, 2 and 3 step-ahead forecasts from this model. describe briefly why this model is called the ‘local-linear’ forecasting model.

(iii) Discuss exactly how the model in (ii) is different to simply applying a linear trend (with normal errors) as follows:
             
(iv) The h-step ahead forecast and forecast variances from the model in (ii) are:

1713_h-step ahead forecast.jpg

What happens to the forecasts and forecast intervals as h gets larger? What happens as h tends to infinity? describe how and why this behaviour can be reasonable in a statistical model.

Econometrics, Economics

  • Category:- Econometrics
  • Reference No.:- M921
  • Price:- $110

Guranteed 48 Hours Delivery, In Price:- $110

Have any Question? 


Related Questions in Econometrics

Ben swims 50000 yards per week in his practices given this

Ben swims 50,000 yards per week in his practices. Given this amount of training, he will swim the 100- yard butterfly in 52.6 seconds and place tenth in a big upcoming meet. Ben's coach calculates that if Ben increases h ...

Overfishing refers to catching fish at a rate that does not

Overfishing refers to catching fish at a rate that does not allow the fish to repopulate. What is the fundamental problem associated with overfishing of the oceans? What might lead to underfishing?

John maynard keynes was the first to show that government

John Maynard Keynes was the first to show that government policy could be used to change aggregate output and prevent recessions by stabilizing the economy. Describe the economy of the world at the time Keynes was writin ...

Don spends his money on food and on operas food is an

Don spends his money on food and on operas. Food is an inferior good for Don. Does he view an opera performance as an inferior or a normal good? Why? In a diagram, show a possible income-consumption curve for Don.

1 explain why imports are subtracted in the expenditure

1. Explain why imports are subtracted in the expenditure approach to calculating GDP. 2. GDP calculations do not directly include the economic costs of environmental damage-for example, global warming and acid rain. Do y ...

Carol skonberg a housewife and part-time piano teacher

Carol Skonberg, a housewife and part-time piano teacher, thought she was filling a crying need with her wineglass jewelry ("Eve Tahmincioglu, "Even the Best Ideas Don't Sell Themselves," New York Times, October 9, 2003, ...

Wek 5 - information systems management - web assignment

WeeK 5 - Information Systems Management - Web Assignment Unit V Web Assignment Examining Supply Chain Profitability In this web research assignment, you will research a company that uses supply chain management (SCM) and ...

1 in your carefully considered opinion what is the role of

1. In your carefully considered opinion, what is the role of education in bringing about the efficient treatment of natural resources and the environment? Briefly describe the type of education progams you would recommen ...

Abortion clinics operate in a nearly perfectly competitive

Abortion clinics operate in a nearly perfectly competitive market, close to their break-even point. Medoff (2007) estimates that the price elasticity of demand for abortions is and the income elasticity is 1.24. The aver ...

1 why do economists say that discrimination is inherently

1. Why do economists say that discrimination is inherently inefficient and therefore will not occur in general? 2. Use the following information to answer these four questions: a. What are the external costs per unit of ...

  • 4,153,160 Questions Asked
  • 13,132 Experts
  • 2,558,936 Questions Answered

Ask Experts for help!!

Looking for Assignment Help?

Start excelling in your Courses, Get help with Assignment

Write us your full requirement for evaluation and you will receive response within 20 minutes turnaround time.

Ask Now Help with Problems, Get a Best Answer

Section onea in an atwood machine suppose two objects of

SECTION ONE (a) In an Atwood Machine, suppose two objects of unequal mass are hung vertically over a frictionless

Part 1you work in hr for a company that operates a factory

Part 1: You work in HR for a company that operates a factory manufacturing fiberglass. There are several hundred empl

Details on advanced accounting paperthis paper is intended

DETAILS ON ADVANCED ACCOUNTING PAPER This paper is intended for students to apply the theoretical knowledge around ac

Create a provider database and related reports and queries

Create a provider database and related reports and queries to capture contact information for potential PC component pro

Describe what you learned about the impact of economic

Describe what you learned about the impact of economic, social, and demographic trends affecting the US labor environmen