Ask Question, Ask an Expert


Ask Econometrics Expert

1. In the x11 multiplicative decomposition method (Y = T x C x S x ε) an MA 3 smoother is applied to the estimated cycle-error (Cε component) series to reveal the cycle component. Why the choice of MA 3 here compared to other smoothers or window sizes? 
2. A simple exponential forecast model is being applied to forecast sales figures (in 1000s of computers) for Dell computers. The last period’s sales figure was 125, while it was forecasted to be 134.3. The weighting parameter is α = 0.25.

(i) What is the point forecast of sales in the next time period?
(ii) What is the 95% forecast interval for the next period’s sales figure? (use z = 1.96)

Show all working.

The simple exponential forecasting formula is:

1118_exponential forecasting formula.jpg

3. List two issues that can help choose between quantitative and qualitative forecasting methods. Give one brief reason why each can help in this choice.

4. Which forecasting method forms a forecast by weighting the most recent data (in time) more highly than less recent data?

5. Regarding quantitative forecasting, what are the main differences between an intuitive method and a formal statistical model?

6. Describe/List the main differences between qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods.

7. Which measure of forecast accuracy should be used in the following situations?

(i) A small number of large forecast errors needs to be guarded against.
(ii) Errors need to be measured in percentage terms.
(iii) Whether a model’s forecasts are biased is more important than the typical size of errors.

8. Consider the following time series plot showing annual labour force data in Australia.

817_annual labor force.jpg

(i) Describe the main features or components apparent in the data
(ii) List three quantitative forecast models that might be tried for this data, with brief motivation for each choice.

9. The time series model with autoregressive order 1 errors can be written as:

76_time series model.jpg

(i) Derive the formula for the 2 step-ahead point forecast E(yt+2| y1,t).

(ii) Now derive the formula for the 100(1-α)%  forecast interval for  yt+2| y1,t.

(iii) What component does the formula for ε attempt to capture? describe exactly how it tries to achieve this when forecasting (a picture might help here).

10. Find the weights, showing all working, for the following centred smoothers:

(i) 2 x 6 MA

(ii) 3 x 3 MA

(iii) 3 x 7 MA

(iv) Indicate how many missing observations there will be at the start and end of each  smoothed series in (i)-(iii).

(v) Identify each smoother in (i)-(iii) as a WMA-k. What is k?

(vi) Is each smoother in (i)-(iii) symmetric? Justify your answer

(vii) Devise a symmetric smoother that is an WMA 5 so that the weight on time t is 1.5 times the weight at times t-1 and t+1; and double the weight at times t-2, t+2

11. The Holt-Winters additive model is given by the equations:

664_holt winters formula.jpg

Showing all working, complete the following:

(i) Put this model in error correction form.

(ii) Derive the 1, 2 and 3 step-ahead forecasts from this model. describe briefly why this model is called the ‘local-linear’ forecasting model.

(iii) Discuss exactly how the model in (ii) is different to simply applying a linear trend (with normal errors) as follows:
(iv) The h-step ahead forecast and forecast variances from the model in (ii) are:

1713_h-step ahead forecast.jpg

What happens to the forecasts and forecast intervals as h gets larger? What happens as h tends to infinity? describe how and why this behaviour can be reasonable in a statistical model.

Econometrics, Economics

  • Category:- Econometrics
  • Reference No.:- M921
  • Price:- $110

Guranteed 48 Hours Delivery, In Price:- $110

Have any Question? 

Related Questions in Econometrics

1 contrast negative and positive externalities provide an

1. Contrast negative and positive externalities. Provide an example of each type of externality. 2. Why does an unregulated market overproduce goods with negative externalities? 3. How can the external marginal benefit a ...

1 what is the gdp for this economy2 what is the gnp for

1. What is the GDP for this economy? 2. What is the GNP for this economy? 3. What is the NNP for this economy? 4. What is the national income for this economy? 5. What is the gross investment in this economy?

In the united states in 2002 130000 aircraft mechanics and

In the United States in 2002, 130,000 aircraft mechanics and service technicians earned an average of $20 an hour whereas 30,000 elevator installers and repairers earned an average of $25 an hour. The skill and training ...

Hacks berries faces a short-run total cost of production

Hack's Berries faces a short-run total cost of production given by TC = Q 3 - 12Q 2 + 100Q + 1,000. a. What is the level of Hack's fixed cost? b. What is Hack's short-run average variable cost of producing berries? (Expr ...

Carmen bought a 125 ticket to attend the outside lands

Carmen bought a $125 ticket to attend the Outside Lands Music & Arts Festival in San Francisco. Because it stars several of her favorite rock groups, she would have been willing to pay up to $200 to attend the festival. ...

In 2008-2009 the price of jet and diesel fuel used by air

In 2008-2009, the price of jet and diesel fuel used by air freight companies decreased dramatically. As the CEO of FedEx, you have been presented with the following proposals to deal with the situation: a. Reduce shippin ...

1 explain the shape of the production possibility curve2

1. Explain the shape of the production possibility curve. 2. What role can government play in the macro economy? 3. Distinguish between policy targets, policy instruments and policy goals in government management of the ...

1 suppose the disney company was experiencing above-normal

1. Suppose the Disney Company was experiencing above-normal profits. What would you predict would happen over time? 2. Explain why a proposed merger between Staples and Office Max was not allowed by the Department of Jus ...

A large number of firms are capable of producing

A large number of firms are capable of producing chocolate-covered cockroaches. The linear, upward sloping supply curve starts on the price axis at $6 per box. A few hardy consumers are willing to buy this product (possi ...

Why the tepid response to higher gasoline prices most

Why the tepid response to higher gasoline prices? Most studies report that when U.S. gasoline prices rise by 10 percent, the quantity purchased falls by 1 to 2 percent. In September 2005, the retail gasoline price was $2 ...

  • 4,153,160 Questions Asked
  • 13,132 Experts
  • 2,558,936 Questions Answered

Ask Experts for help!!

Looking for Assignment Help?

Start excelling in your Courses, Get help with Assignment

Write us your full requirement for evaluation and you will receive response within 20 minutes turnaround time.

Ask Now Help with Problems, Get a Best Answer

WalMart Identification of theory and critical discussion

Drawing on the prescribed text and/or relevant academic literature, produce a paper which discusses the nature of group

Section onea in an atwood machine suppose two objects of

SECTION ONE (a) In an Atwood Machine, suppose two objects of unequal mass are hung vertically over a frictionless

Part 1you work in hr for a company that operates a factory

Part 1: You work in HR for a company that operates a factory manufacturing fiberglass. There are several hundred empl

Details on advanced accounting paperthis paper is intended

DETAILS ON ADVANCED ACCOUNTING PAPER This paper is intended for students to apply the theoretical knowledge around ac

Create a provider database and related reports and queries

Create a provider database and related reports and queries to capture contact information for potential PC component pro