1. (a) Discuss forecasting and explain why is it so important in the management of business firms and other enterprises also determine What are the different types of forecasting? How can the firm determine the most suitable forecasting method to use?
2. (a)What are qualitative forecasts? What are the most important forms of qualitative forecast? (b) What are the most important opinion polls of future economic activities? Why is gaining a foreign perspective important? How do firms usually go about gaining this?
5. Using the index (185=100) on housing starts in the United States per year from 1986 to 1997 given in the table below, forecast the index for 1998 a three-year and a five year moving average. Which of your estimates is better if the actual index of housing starts in the United States for 1998 is 1963?
Index of House Starts in the United States: 1986 to 19997 (with 1985=100)
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
116 122 121 121 111 97
1992 1993 1994 1995 19996 1997
113 125 146 142 156 162
8. The following table presents the monthly sales index of breakfast cereals of the Tasty Food Company for 2000 and three other time series for the same period. Indicate which time series is a (a) coincident indicator, (b) leading indicator ( and the lead time).
Month
1 2 3 4 5 6
Index of
Cereal sales 110 130 125 120 130 135
Time series A 50 60 56 54 60 62
Times series B 140 130 145 150 170 160
Time series C 100 100 120 115 110 100
Month
7 8 9 10 11 12
Index of
Cereal sales 150 140 150 130 120 110
Times series A 70 65 70 60 54 50
Time series B 165 170 145 143 136 153
Time series C 125 120 125 115 110 100