Suppose the Fed's Beige Book reported that "in South Florida, bookings for the summer tourist season were off to a slower start than last year" and that "tourist counts and revenues were down in Hawaii and Las Vegas and at destinations such as golf schools and luxury resorts in the inter-mountain states and along the West Coast."

If this information reflects nationwide consumer choices regarding discretionary income, what would you predict about the future course of Fed policy regarding interest rates?

Would your prediction change if you believed that slower travel activity was the result of higher gasoline or other transportation costs?