1.          Time-series forecasting models:

             a.   are useful where changes occur rapidly

             b.   are more effective in making long-run forecasts

             c.   are based solely on historical observations of the values of the variable being forecasted

             d.   attempt to explain the underlying causal relationships which produce the observed outcome

2.          The forecasting technique which attempts to forecast short-run changes and makes use of economic indicators known as leading, coincident or lagging indicators is known as:

             a.   econometric technique

             b.   time-series forecasting

             c.   opinion polling

             d.   barometric technique

             e.   judgment forecasting

3.          The use of quarterly data to develop the forecasting model Yt = kYt-1 is an example of which forecasting technique?

             a.   barometric

             b.   time-series

             c.   survey

             d.   econometric

             e.   input-output

4.          Variations in a time-series forecast can be caused by:

             a.   cyclical variations

             b.   secular trends

             c.   seasonal effects

             d.   a and b only

             e.   a, b, and c

5.          The variation in an economic time-series which is caused by major expansions or contractions usually of greater than a year in duration is known as:

             a.   secular trend

             b.   cyclical variation

             c.   seasonal effect

             d.   unpredictable random factor

             e.   none of the above

6.          The type of economic indicator that can best be used for business forecasting is the:

             a.   leading indicator

             b.   coincident indicator

             c.   lagging indicator

             d.   current business inventory indicator

             e.   optimism/pessimism indicator

7.          Consumer expenditure plans is an example of a forecasting method.  Which of the general categories best described this example?

             a.   time-series forecasting techniques

             b.   barometric techniques

             c.   survey techniques and opinion polling

             d.   econometric techniques

             e.   input-output analysis

8.          In the first-order exponential smoothing model, the new forecast is equal to the old forecast plus a weighting factor (W) times the error in the most recent forecast.

             a.   true

             b.   false

9.          Simplified trend models are generally appropriate for predicting the turning points in an economic time series.

             a.   true

             b.   false

10.        Smoothing techniques are a form of ___________ techniques which assume that there is an underlying pattern to be found in the historical values of a variable that is being forecast.

             a.   opinion polling

             b.   barometric forecasting

             c.   econometric forecasting

             d.   time-series forecasting

             e.   none of the above

11.        Seasonal variations can be incorporated into a time-series model in a number of different ways, including:

             a.   ratio-to-trend method

             b.   use of dummy variables

             c.   root mean squared error method

             d.   a and b only

             e.   a, b, and c